“History shows again and again
How nature points out the folly of men”
I’ve had this ringing in my ears for almost a month after seeing Blue Oyster Cult sing one of their big hits “Godzilla” at the Mid State Fair. No, this isn’t about classic rock groups or ‘B’ movies, but instead the irony and how true it rings now that the supposed Godzilla of El Nino’s sits out in the Pacific, ready to emerge once fall is in full force.
That’s what the weather experts are calling for this coming season (source: L.A. Times) and therefore we may see the rainiest El Nino on record. Of course, predicting nature and weather, even among scientist, is little more than a bad game of dart throwing. Still, from every corner, we’re being told that after having one of the worse droughts on record, we may end the drought with the most massive subtropical moisture driven winters ever. This may be worse than any ‘B’ movie can conjure up.
The National Weather Service states every computer model now has the Southwestern U.S. staring down the barrel of a big El Nino late this year. It likely will last through early spring. Whether this all comes to past is up for grabs since the history of nature has a tendency to show us again and again the folly of forecasting weather – it’s never been an exact science.
“With a purposeful grimace and a terrible sound”
Certainly this summer has been influenced mightily by the warm waters off our California coast. We’ve had monsoonal flow from Arizona all the way up here in Central California. The Godzilla of summer storms hit California in July bringing the remnants of Hurricane Dolores right to our doorstep, causing terrible damage. There was terrible sounds of furious thunder and lightning, plus flooding and mudslides after heavy winds and three-and-a-half inches of rain fell – most of it in less than a couple hours.
Godzilla Versus The Blob
Not to be outdone – with another ‘B’ movie reference – we also have the ‘Blob’ to contend with. Nicknamed the Blob, it’s a warmer than usual body of water that may have contributed to pulling Dolores further up the Pacific Coast. It sits in the Gulf of Alaska and although much more shallow than El Nino as far as the depth of warm water is concerned, the Blob brings an X-factor to weather forecasters.
The farmers, especially grape-growers, don’t seem as apprehensive since the vines are dormant during winter. Frost is usually the big concern in early spring after bud-break, however, if this powerful rain phenomenon should continue into spring, diseases like rot and mildew can wreak havoc with vineyards. Dolores was relatively quick, but a constant drumbeat of incessant downpours are a trademark of El Nino. If El Nino should make a premature arrival in early fall, wet weather can also ruin grapes prior to harvest; but, this years early picking will probably dodge that pitfall.
The Blob’s warm waters off Alaska and Canada is a big unknown. A typical El Nino has only warm waters off California with cooler temps north. This year’s conditions though are more intense with bigger and deeper warm water. No one is sure how this will affect the normal El Nino pattern – it could bring storms farther north and moderate the impact, or it might exasperate the conditions and make for a monster weather system.
The truth of the matter is, the Blob could influence the Godzilla of El Nino’s, which in-turn may raise its ugly head and turn around, heading back into the depths of the Pacific. October is roughly the beginning of the rainy season in California and climatologists say the next several weeks will determine more certainty as to whether this prediction of a devastating rain pattern will actually happen. Until then, it’s something no one knows for sure.
“Oh no, they say he’s got to go go go Godzilla”
Cheers,
Daryle W. Hier
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